Mainstreet poll on the economy: optimistic Canadians, but …
Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives will be able to fully play the economic map in the next federal election. According to a Mainstreet survey, Canadians are taking a nuanced look at the economy and their personal finances, showing optimism for the future, but also finding that the cost of living has increased significantly.
P lmost 54% of respondents said they were very or somewhat optimistic about the Canadian economy, and 63% see the future favorably about their personal finances. This optimism is particularly strong in Quebec, with scores of 64% for the economy and 67% for personal finances. There are also more Canadians who feel that their situation has improved over the past four years (48%) than there are those who find the opposite (40%), which should in principle give ammunition to the outgoing government. Justin Trudeau.
However, an overwhelming majority of respondents also believe that the cost of living has increased “fairly” (42%) or “a lot” (34%). In addition, when asked if it is time to change government at the federal level, 45% say they “strongly agree” and 16% “partially agree”, for a total of 61% who want a defeat Liberals. Which, of course, benefits the conservatives of Andrew Scheer.
No wonder in the end, these same Canadians do not have an apparent preference about who should be responsible for the economy for the next four years: 30.6% choose Andrew Scheer, statistically the same as for Justin Trudeau (30.5%).
“The question of who is the best leader for the economy is usually a good indicator of who will win the election,” says Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi. So these numbers tell us that the coming elections could be very tight, despite Justin Trudeau’s lead in our polls [note: 35% versus 33% for the Conservative Party of Canada in a poll published last week].
“If voters vote according to their impressions of the economy and their personal finances, then Trudeau will benefit. But if it’s their desire for change and the fact that life is now very expensive they have in mind, then it’s Scheer who will have the advantage, “says Maggi.
This survey was conducted among 2,651 Canadians between June 27 and July 2. Its margin of error is ± 1.9% 19 times out of 20, but regional sub-samples have larger margins.