Photo: Jack Guez Agence France-Presse
According to the international air transport Association, traffic is not expected to regain its pre-crisis level before 2023.
The demand for oil will rebound in history next year after the fall caused by the pandemic COVID-19, but will be limited by the “existential crisis” of the aviation sector, warned Tuesday the international energy Agency (IEA).
In its first forecast for 2021, it anticipates a bond unheard of 5.7 million barrels per day (mbd) world demand relative to 2020, a year marked by the impact of COVID-19.
“We may see next year in the biggest rise in the history of oil,” stressed the director general of the IEA, Fatih Birol, during a video conference. He stressed, however, that these prospects depend on the economic recovery, but also of the absence of a second wave of contamination.
97.4 mbd, the demand in 2021 would remain, however, always of 2.4 mbd below the level in 2019, “mainly due to the current weakness in demand for jet fuel and kerosene,” says the IEA in its monthly report on the oil.
“The aviation sector is facing an existential crisis” and its application in petroleum products ” will remain under pressure well beyond this year, even if the other fuels are expected to recover to levels pre-COVID-19 “, considers for its part, the IEA.
In the middle of next year
“If we set the fuel air side, we will regain pre-crisis levels in the middle of next year. But the key question is to know when people will start taking the plane, ” stresses Fatih Birol. The health crisis was nailed to the ground between 80 and 90 % of the world fleet and the restart is very progressive, given that many borders remain closed.
According to the international air transport Association, traffic is not expected to regain its pre-crisis level before 2023 with first a restart on domestic routes this summer followed by a recovery to be much slower for the international traffic.