Air disaster

Catastrophe aƩrienne

Photo: Christof Stache Agence France-Presse
According to the estimates of the ICAO, the airlines would suffer a loss of their operating revenues, ranging between 238 billion US $418 billion.

The latest estimates come from the Organization of the international civil aviation organization (ICAO), which updates the 20 may. The recovery of the economic activity takes a form in V, U, W, worse in The, never the airline industry have been shaken to the core by 2020 since the Second world War. Even in September 2001 and the financial crisis of 2008 combined with an oil shock can’t compete with the magnitude of the current tremor.

Cuts, bankruptcies, nationalization and partial consolidation will exist side by side with this health crisis, and it is expected within the international air transport Association (IATA in English). The most recent projections in the running, coming this time from the ICAO, the industry should expect a loss of some $ 1.8 billion of international air travellers this year. At a minimum.

1.8 billion

It is the loss of international air travellers must expect the industry this year, according to projections by the ICAO. At a minimum.

Like all analysts, the specialized agency of the united Nations warns of the limits of the exercise, so the horizon is not obstructed by the pandemic to the vagaries still unpredictable. Everything is a function of the duration and magnitude of the crisis and of the measures of restrictions, the degree of confidence of the travellers, and economic conditions. Thus, the capacity measured by the number of seats offered will fall between 32% and 55% this year and the erosion of the basin of passengers would receive $ 1.8 billion, or $ 3.2 billion passengers, according to the end of the range. The air carriers would suffer a loss of their operating revenues, ranging between 238 billion US $418 billion.

The most optimistic scenarios of the ICAO study oscillate between a V-shaped recovery after reaching a trough at the end of may, or U-shaped with a hollow in July. These projections are similar to those of the IATA, which expects revenues of passengers lower than us $ 314 billion US $this year, which is less than half the turnover of 2019. But beyond these statistics, the crisis threatens 25 million jobs in aviation and the associated value chains, including the tourism sector, it is feared.

In this global perspective, airports will be subject to erosion of 57% or $ 97 billion of their revenue this year, compared to a context of normal business, ” says the ICAO. Globally, international tourist entries / revenues will fold between 910 billion and 1170 billion, and the decline in the volume of merchandise trade is estimated to be between 13 and 32%, compared to 2019.

The scenario of the industry is building on a recovery plan in several phases, including a reopening of the domestic market at the end of may beginning of June, followed by a relaunch of the continental market in the third quarter and then the market intercontinental in September, hopefully, with milestones for the reopening of the borders already in place in Europe.

A recovery under the seal of the food safety, with protocols updated, and procedures outlined for the control applies to all stages, from the entrance to the departure terminal at the exit of the arrival terminal, in the framework of a unified process from one country to the other, has already presented to the IATA.

A recovery scenario that must combine with a survey commissioned by the Association, carried out from 6 to 9 April among travellers from several countries, indicating that 60 % of respondents expect to begin travel within one to two months after the containment of the pandemic. But 40 % could wait six months or more. Moreover, 69 % expect to delay the resumption of travel until their financial situation stabilizes.

Thus, we see that the level of traffic will remain 50% to 60% lower than at the end of December than it was in 2019, with full catch-up, at best, somewhere the end of 2021.

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