Air Transport: the return of the travellers will be slow

Transport aérien: le retour des voyageurs sera lent

Bombardier
The IATA estimates that the crisis threatens 25 million jobs in aviation and the associated value chains, including the tourism sector.

The airlines expect a slow recovery in the wake of the pandemic.

“The trust of passengers will be doubly challenged after the pandemic, due to financial concerns personal in the context of an impending recession and concerns regarding the safety of travel. Governments and industry need to respond quickly and co-ordinated by measures of confidence building, ” said Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive officer and chief executive officer of the international air transport Association (IATA, in English).

Tax relief

The airlines are also demanding that the government immediately provide financial assistance to help them remain viable and able to lead the recovery when the pandemic will be stemmed.

In particular, the IATA suggests a direct financial support, loans and loan guarantees and support to the corporate bond market, as well as tax cuts.

In a recent survey conducted from 6 to 9 April among travellers from several countries and ordered by the Association, 60 % of respondents say they expect to start again to travel in a period of one to two months after the containment of the pandemic COVID-19, but 40 % indicate that they could wait six months or more. In addition, 69 % indicated that they could delay the resumption of travel until their financial situation stabilizes.

In this survey adds to the experience observed on the domestic markets of China and Australia, where the rate of infection has dropped to low levels. In the first case, the domestic demand has taken over the tone once the rate of infection to the COVID-19 fell below 10%, to be rapidly approaching zero.

The behavior of the internal market is a critical indicator, since it is expected that the recovery post-pandemic begins by domestic travel

— IATA

“There has been a recovery in early between mid-February and the first week of march. The number of domestic flights has reached a plateau, standing at a little over 40% of the level prior to the COVID-19. “The load factors of these flights, however, were low, suggesting a resumption of growth more stunted.

In Australia, domestic demand has continued to decline even after the rate of new infections has fallen under 10 %. And the total number of domestic flights is 10 % of the level prior to the COVID-19 even if the number of new infections approaches zero.

“The behavior of the internal market is a critical indicator, since it is expected that the recovery postpandémie begins with domestic travel, followed by travel to regional and intercontinental, to the extent that governments will lift gradually the restrictions,” adds IATA. The domestic market account for 58% of total passengers, but for one-third of the total revenues of the carriers.

 

Follow the spread of the COVID-19 around the world

Measures help urgent

This scenario and these references add to the urgency of the measures of help expected by the airlines. With its decision to place themselves under voluntary administration, Virgin Australia, the second largest airline in Australia, becomes the first airline to be important to fold before the pandemic. However, it should be clear that Virgin Australia was already struggling financially before the outbreak of the pandemic.

The Association, which has 290 members, claiming 82 % of the air traffic world, returns to its dark calculations. It is estimated that the crisis threatens 25 million jobs in aviation and the associated value chains, including the tourism sector. “Revenue passengers” should be 314 billion US $less than 2019 (-55 %) and the airlines will spend $ 61 billion of liquidity during the second quarter alone, while demand plunges by 80% or more. “

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