Photo: Renaud Philippe The Duty
In several sectors, including construction, less than 20% of the workers can rely on telework, and many of them are vulnerable.
The pandemic has taken away a lot of jobs that the end of the containment measures will be difficult to recover.
The OECD calculated recently that the unemployment rate in Canada, around 11 % in the second quarter, was well above the previous peak of 8.7 % in the third quarter of 2009. “Although a rapid decrease is to be expected with the end of the containment measures, the projections remain 7.7 % by the end of 2021 in the scenario of a single wave, of 8.4% in the scenario with two pandemic waves in 2020. “It amounted to 5.6% in February.
In the June edition of the “blue Book” of BMO financial Group, released on Wednesday, the chief economist Douglas Porter also brought into relief the difficult recovery. Despite evidence in favour of June, the unemployment rate remains in the double digits for both sides of the border and is located approximately seven percentage points higher than a year ago. In Canada, it should amount to around 7% by the end of 2021, or about two percentage points higher than at the hollow pre-pandemic, he stressed.
Thus, for number of workers affected, the loss of employment caused by the coronavirus is not temporary. Which represents so much uncertainty for all sectors, but more for those, cyclic, dependent on the discretionary income of consumers and households. They are seldom unionized, with a dominant presence of SMES, and home to its share of workers in vulnerable or part-time. Sectors that can hardly coexist with the distancing, even with teleworking, reiterated Oxford Economics. The consulting firm of research has already given the example of the industries of construction, agriculture, transport, the retail trade or the accommodation, restaurant, catering, where less than 20 % of the workers can rely on telework.
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In its summer edition 2020 of the Survey on the business outlook, the Bank of Canada pointed out that more than half of the respondents who have recently conducted layoffs speak not reopen that some of the positions. But many are not planning to increase their headcount over 12 months, often because they fear low sales.
“According to our base scenario, about two-thirds of unemployed Canadians will receive a reminder from their employer before the end of 2020 “, said Sébastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank securities.
From February to April, 5.5 million canadian workers have been affected. This number includes a loss of 3 million jobs and an increase of $ 2.5 million of work absences related to the pandemic, could it be read in the latest edition of the labour force Survey of Statistics Canada.
The data from 14 to 20 June have shown a recovery that is important, but partial. The number of workers affected has been reduced to 3.1 million, including some 2.5 million Canadians to unemployment, a level more than two times higher than that of 1.1 million measured in February. The level of employment in June was 9.2 % below the level observed in February at the canadian level, 7.8 % at the québec-wide scale.
Of course, the unemployment rate does not tell the whole. On the income side, the workers saw their total compensation fall by 23 %, on average, between February and April, a gap that will be hard to catch up, ” added Sébastien Lavoie. It is not surprising that a little over 18 % of households reported last month to have missed or delayed a payment of rent or a payment on a mortgage, loan or credit card because of the COVID-19.
And Statistics Canada chimed in : in June, 28.3 per cent of Canadians aged 15 to 69 years reported having received some form of federal assistance to the revenue since the 15 march. Despite the recovery of employment and this assistance, the proportion of Canadians living in households reporting that they have difficulty meeting their financial needs fundamental, such as paying the rent or mortgage, utilities and groceries was located at 20.1 %.