Photo: Philippe Desmazes Agence France-Presse
France is the country which has experienced the strongest rebound in the economy post-COVID-19, but this burst of activity is at the mercy of a reversal of the epidemic, reveals a study.
France is the country which has experienced the strongest rebound in the economy post-COVID-19, thanks to the consumption of households, but this burst of activity is at the mercy of a reversal of the epidemic, reveals a study by the Boston Consulting Group released on Friday.
The consulting firm has developed, from the tools of artificial intelligence, a composite index to measure, in real time, the magnitude of the rebound (recovery gap) compared to a level 100 before the crisis, and this, for nine countries, including France, Germany, the United States, Japan, and Brazil.
On 12 July, France and Germany had a score of 94, very close to the level before the crisis, followed by Italy (91) Spain (90), the Uk is lagging behind with a score of 76. “Today, France is the yellow jersey on the rebound. As much, it was the european country which had the greatest decrease, as it is the one that goes faster “, analysis Sylvain Duranton, global head of BCG GAMMA, the branch of data science to the cabinet.
Thus, after having fallen by 49 points, the consumption has rebounded in France of 45 points, compared with a fall of 32, followed by a rebound of 27 for Germany, which has not confined as strictly to its population. The automotive sector, which had particularly suffered from the confinement, can buy more in France (95) than in its european neighbours (90 on average), ” thanks to the government recovery plan “, the study notes.
However, ” two months are going to be a pivotal period for the european economies, because the activity levels are between 90 % and 95 % of what they were pre-COVID, but there is a small decline in the recovery : either we will continue to grow to reach, or even exceed, the levels pre-crisis before the end of the year, or, on the contrary, with fears of a resumption of the epidemic, reconfinement part, we are going to see these indicators fall “, said Mr. Duranton.
Concern in the United States
If the activity of our american neighbours, who have not experienced confinement widespread, has declined by much less (86) that, in Europe, on the other hand there is no evidence of a recovery and the consumer displays the same worrisome signs of stalling, while Japan is in a situation of complete stagnation.
Only China has recovered its level of activity pre-COVID : “In this country, all the sectors […] are in growth compared to the same period last year,” notes the study by the BCG, with the exception of the sector of transport and logistics, depending on the recovery of exports and imports.
Canada is slightly behind
According to other indicators compiled by the National Bank, the degree of re-opening of the economy varies greatly from one country to the other in a ranking putting Canada slightly. On the basis of the reversal of the reservations at the restaurant, Canada has a rate of a little more than 50 % under the level of 2019, compared to a level of 58 % for the world average, and 60 % in the United States.
In contrast, according to an index of return to normal borrowing from the data of mobility Google for the shops, grocery stores, work, and public transit, Canada is lagging behind somewhat, and stood at around 20% below the day of the corresponding week in the period from 3 January to 6 February. The United States and Spain are at a similar level, while the United Kingdom did the worst with a delay of 30 %. At the top in the list of comparison, Germany has a delay of 10 %, followed by France (15 %) and Sweden (18 %).
For its part, Québec is 20% below its back to normal, after touching a low of 60 % in mid-April.
with The Duty