Photo: Renaud Philippe The Duty
An employee works on repair of a roof in Montreal.
The annual pace of housing starts has declined from 20.4% in may compared to April, excluding Quebec, said Monday the canada mortgage and housing corporation (CMHC).
Outside Quebec, the annual rate of housing starts fell to 132 576 in may, compared to 166 477 in April, the pace of housing starts in Ontario have slowed down 40 %.
The federal agency has not conducted its monthly survey of housing starts and completions in Quebec in April, following the introduction of measures related to the pandemic at the end of march, which paralyzed the construction industry in the province. Residential construction in Quebec was resumed on 20 April, and the CMHC has resumed its investigation in may.
A total of 20.4 %
It is the decrease of the annual rate of housing starts in may, compared to April, excluding Quebec.
The moving average of six-month annual rates of monthly seasonally adjusted housing starts was 196 750 units in may, down from 198 644 in April. Excluding the province of Quebec, it has reached 151 072 units in may, down from 155 600 units in April.
The economist Rishi Sondhi, TD Bank, pointed out that residential construction was generally resilient to the pandemic.
“Although this result might surprise some, we note that the construction of housing is in part a function of the demand for housing increased, which has been strong,” wrote Mr Sondhi in a report. “In addition, most provinces have not closed their construction in response to the epidemic. “
Mr. Sondhi noted that it was fair to wonder how long this resilience would last. “The issuance of permits declined in April, which could indicate a weakness in the short term.
Looking forward, the prospect of a growth in population much more slowly over the next few quarters darkens the medium-term prospects of the housing construction. “
51% to 75%
It is the proportion of housing starts projected by the CMHC during the second half of 2020, compared to their levels prior to the COVID-19.
In its outlook last month, CMHC reported that sales of existing homes are expected to drop to between 19 % and 29 % compared to their level prior to the COVID-19, before beginning a slow recovery and gradual in 2021.
It has been calculated that the average prices of homes could decline by between 9 % and 18 % in its forecast, before you start back up in the first half of 2021.
CMHC has estimated that housing starts would range between 51 % and 75 % during the second half of 2020, compared to their levels prior to the COVID-19, before starting to recover in the first half of 2021, as the economic conditions improve.