A study of “The Lancet” provides that the population will return to $ 8.8 billion at the end of the century.
If the future (distant) was to give him reason, the new would be of paramount importance, but would not change can not be basically the things. The most recent estimates of the united Nations said that the world population should continue to grow until at least 2100 and graze then the 11 billion humans, compared to approximately $ 7.8 billion today. A study released Tuesday in the scientific journal The Lancet came up with a portrait that is far different, according to which the human population will reach a peak of $ 9.7 billion in 2064, before starting to decrease and go back to 8.8 billion at the end of the century.
More than two dozen countries, including Japan, Italy, Spain and Thailand, will see their population decrease by more than half, and dozens of others will accuse setbacks massive, including China, which would be 1.4 billion people today to 732 million in 80 years. In sub-saharan Africa will be one of the few large regions of the planet to increase its demographic weight, from one billion to three billion people, but while seeing it, in the meantime, its fertility rate of 4.6 births per woman collapse and eventually pass under the threshold of 2.1 renewal of the population, only 1.7.
The main reasons for this demographic trend are the increase in the level of education of girls, delaying the age of first birth, and the best access to the means of contraception, explain the researchers of an institute of medical statistics based at the university of the State of Washington. If the sustainable development goals of the UN were achieved in these two areas alone the world’s population could even be no more than $ 6.3 billion in 2100, they estimate.
Good news, or not ?
Those who think that the problems of hunger and pollution on the Earth arising from its growing population will regret that these changes do not occur quickly. Others will see the threat of an explosion of public expenditure related to the ageing of the population in the same time, we will miss more and more arms to create wealth. In fact, of the 25 births for each individual passing the milestone of 80 years in 1950, the ratio is now 7 to 1 and would be no more than 1 to 1 at the end of the century.
Those who have had recourse to political pronatalist in the past (maternity leave, financial incentives to have more children, day-care centers…) have not always been successful, says the study, and the increase in the participation rate of women or older workers will not suffice. The countries that will fare the best are those, such as the United States (whose population could grow from 325 million in 2017 to 336 million in 2100), or Canada (36 million to 44 million), which give a wide place to the immigration, say our experts, which state do not take account of the possible impact of new technologies such as automation or artificial intelligence.
And this is where one of the limits of the consequences, negative as positive, that it could be inferred from their population projections. Indeed, also true that humans are not expected to be 7.8 billion for famine and begin to disrupt the climate, they have also already solutions that allow them to ensure a healthier future and a more prosperous, showing himself to be more responsive to the limitations and possibilities of the world, observed especially on Tuesday a report by the world economic Forum in Davos.