Midterm elections in the United States: forecast and impact on Ukraine

 Промежуточные выборы в США: прогноз и влияние на Украину

Very soon (6 Nov) the world’s largest economy will be held mid-term elections to both chambers of Congress, which the Republican party can maintain their position or to lose them. Elections are called midterm elections because they happen right in the middle of a four-year term of office of the President of the United States. We all remember that at the election of the President of the United States two years ago, Donald trump got quite a landslide victory in electoral votes (officers from each state), which was accompanied by victories and at the level of both chambers of Congress. But at the same time, the majority of voters in the presidential election in 2016 voted for Hillary Clinton, and if not for the peculiarities of the technology of counting of votes, she would have held the position of President of the United States. Therefore, many supporters of the Democratic party of the United States are waiting for a certain revenge in the parliamentary elections.

Peculiarities of the elections in the U.S. Congress

As you know, the U.S. Congress consists of two chambers: the chamber of representatives (lower) and Senate (upper). Congress is elected through direct General elections by secret ballot.

The house of representatives is a body of national representation. The house of representatives is composed of 435 deputies is elected for two years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of every even-numbered year in single-member districts.

Among the States the seats are distributed in proportion to population. The redistribution of seats is carried out every ten years by census. Constituency in elections to the House of representatives should have equal, if possible, population. Now the representation quota is approximately 710 thousand. The greatest representation are California (53), new York (27), Texas (36), Pennsylvania (18) Illinois (22). A number of States with low population have one representative, which is the lowest rate of representation under the Constitution of the United States.

The Senate is a body of representation of the States consists of 100 senators: each state elects two senators for a period of 6 years at the same time with the house of representatives. However, the Senate is renewed by 1/3 every two years.

Thus, November 6, 2018 will be a pretty important election of representatives of the legislature, which will select all members of the lower house and 35 senators (33 over a 6-year old powers, a by-election in Minnesota and Mississippi). In addition, the elections for governors 39.

The current situation

Now there is such situation.

Senate (100): Republicans, 51; Democrats 47; Independent — 2.

The House Of Representatives (435): Republicans — 235; Democrats — 193; Vacant — 7.

So, the Republican party is its President, a minimal majority in the Senate (51%) and relatively sizeable majority in the House of Representatives (218 (majority) + 17).

Preliminary forecasts and implications for Ukraine

The US President Donald trump has repeatedly stressed that it was under his tenure against Russia were imposed “tough sanctions”, but it’s unlikely it was his initiative. Many researchers have noted that the Russian President is the most understandable for Donald trump, given the rather non-standard views on the recent behavior of international negotiations. From Donald trump heard a lot of positive feedback in the direction of the Russian President, and, most likely, between the inner circle of both, there are a variety of communication and interest in business and other projects.

It seems that the local defeat of the Republican party in Congressional elections in the US would be to arm the Ukrainian government, because the change of majority in Congress would be greatly hindered the process of convergence of Donald trump and Vladimir Putin.

The United States was and remains one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine’s independence and its territorial integrity. This idea is shared by an absolute majority of members of Congress, representatives of the “Republican” majority and a “democratic minority”, however, most likely, he is the current President of the United States signed a new “package” of sanctions against Russia with great reluctance and does so only because the function signature is purely technical.

The negative perception of the results of the meeting of Donald trump with Vladimir Putin in July this year with a projection for future midterm elections made the first transfer of the next meeting on the post-election period.

Predictions elections to the Senate. Elected 35 senators, and only 9 of the current “Republicans”. For the loss of most of the “Republicans” should be “Democrats” took 24 “their” space, 2 independent and at least 2 Republican. The chances of such a scenario is negligible. None of the influential analytical research not give good predictions for the formation of a “democratic” majority. However, the number of independent senators could increase.

Predictions elections to the House of representatives. Very often in the midterm elections in the House of representatives wins epresidents party. Most likely, it will happen on 6 November, the Republican party could lose up to 25 seats, which may provide a shaky majority of democratic party. But the vote has already shown that the pre-election forecasts in the United States can not be justified, especially as up to 40 pairs of candidates have roughly the same ratings.

So, the most likely result of the midterm elections in the U.S. Congress will be to maintain the fragile majority “of Republicans” in the Senate and a potential victory in the House of representatives with the formation of unstable most of the “Democrats”. In this position of Donald trump and the Republican party may be adversely affected by the loss of the majority in the house of representatives, but remains strong enough. In this case, the relations between Ukraine and the United States will remain essentially unchanged, and the probability of creating agreement on “spheres of influence” between trump and Putin will fall.

Doctor of economic Sciences, Professor Sergey Kolodiy