Here we are almost at the end of the month of April. Three weeks ago, the experts of the Québec public Health presented their scenarios – optimistic and pessimistic – of the expected evolution of the epidemic in the province during the month. On 8 April, were you exposed in this article that these scenarios represented in the number of daily deaths. We apply a rolling average of three days on the daily increments of the balance sheet to facilitate the reading.
Photo: Data: Government of Quebec
An update of this stocktaking confirms that Quebec will follow the path the more optimistic in the case of COVID-19. Our graph, we can also observe that the number of new cases has not known a maximum very clear in recent weeks. Since the beginning of the month, it hovers around 800 new cases per day. This number is obviously dependent on the amount of screening tests performed, which has undergone a slight decrease in the province recently.
To the end of the month of April, both scenarios forecast a similar number of new cases. The real toll is approaching roughly of these projections. The future evolution of the epidemic is now much more difficult to assess: it depends on the details of the exit of the containment. The research group of Marc Brisson, Laval University, has recently produced forecasts of the number of new symptomatic cases by day in the general population (NURSING homes excluded) for the next few months. The uncertainty with which these forecasts are subject, however, is very important.