The peak of the pandemic coronavirus in Quebec is expected to occur on 18 April, according to the scenarios unveiled Tuesday by officials of the ministry of Health. This is a preliminary estimate which could occur a few days before or after, have they added during a briefing technique organized for the parliamentary press.
Two types of scenarios have been presented : optimistic and pessimistic. The pessimistic scenario builds on the experience of Italy, while the optimistic scenario use the data from the Portugal and Germany. Following the optimistic scenario the Portuguese, the number of cases could more than double in Quebec by 30 April and thus, from 9340 to 29 212. The number of deaths would increase from 150 to 1263, if we rely on the optimistic scenario German. Québec is currently somewhat below these two scenarios, optimistic. The worst-case scenario modelled on Italy provides for a total number of 59 845 cases of infection and 8860 death on 30 April.
“I would not want to alarm the people with the pessimistic scenario, had warned the prime minister François Legault, a few hours earlier. You’re going to see, obviously, when we look at the expected number of deaths, it can be worrisome. “
The scenarios have been developed from the experience in some european countries such as Italy and Spain, countries where it has been very hard “. “So, this is for sure, when one uses these scenarios to make projections in Quebec, it can give you scenarios where there is a lot of death, said Mr. Legault. But it remains that, until now, it is much closer to the scenarios where the countries have been the best. “
“Compared to what is observed up to now, it is closer to the (scenario) optimistic than pessimistic,” added the national director of public health, Horacio Arruda, while inviting Quebecers to continue to apply the measures of social distancing.
The assistant of Mr. Arruda, the medical advisor of the strategic Directorate-general of public health, Richard Massé, made the point at the press conference immediately after the briefing technique in which the journalists were able to attend. Mr. Arruda is not present at the press conference. He had not hidden his reluctance the previous day to disclose the scenarios on which it relies to make its recommendations to the government. “When we talk to our experts, no one has the taste of present scenarios […] because the projections beyond April 30, there, there’s nobody who wants to play JoJo Savard,” he said, referring to the famous astrologer in quebec. He would have preferred to wait a week before having to reveal the forecast of the public health.
The scenarios unveiled by the government of Doug Ford, Ontario Friday, estimate that the number of dead could rise to 1600 and the number of cases reach 80,000 by the end of the month with the health measures already in place. Although the time when the pandemic will end is uncertain, the ontario government projects that between 3000 and 15 000 people could die from the COVID-19 by then, while holding measures of social distancing.