Photo: Mario Tama, Getty Images via AFP
The agreement signed in 2015 displays the objective of containing global warming “well below 2°C relative to preindustrial levels” and if possible 1.5°C, the countries embarking on “national contributions” (NDC) to be renewed every five years.
The non-compliance with the objectives of the Paris Agreement on global warming could cost up to 600 000 billion us dollars by the end of the century, according to a study published Tuesday.
The agreement signed in 2015 displays the objective of containing global warming “well below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels” and if possible 1.5 °C, the countries embarking on “national contributions” (NDC) to be renewed every five years.
However, the NDC current — which had to be revised during the COP26 in November in Glasgow, postponed because of the pandemic of COVID-19 — place the planet on the path to a warming of 3 °C to 4 °C by 2100, according to UN experts.
The study, published in Nature Communications, investigates the costs (damages related to weather events, for example) such as investments (technologies, low-carbon, for example) to assess the losses or nominal gains for the world economy under different scenarios.
A non-compliance with the objectives of the Paris Agreement could cost between 126 000 and 616 000 billion, while the global economy could see gains from 336 000 to 422 000 billion in meeting the goals of 2 °C or 1.5 °C, respectively.
And the non-compliance of NDC current, while the United States Donald Trump should withdraw from the Agreement of Paris in the autumn, could result in losses ranging from 150 000 to 790 000 billion. Conversely, a balance of losses and revenues would require an investment of between 18 000 and 113 000 billion dollars, of which more than 90 % of the countries in the G20, according to the study.
To see the video
“Implement a strategy to preserve requires an awareness of the seriousness of global warming to enable advances in technologies, low-carbon,” said Biying Yu, of the Institute of technology of Beijing, senior author of the study, noting that the countries provide in general the priority to short-term gains on investments in favour of the climate.
“Without these investments, emissions [of greenhouse gases] cannot be reduced, and the climate damage will have a greater probability to occur, resulting in huge economic losses. If the countries are aware that they will suffer these losses if they do not reduce their emissions, will they be more rational in their choices, strengthening their response to climate change ? ” asks the researcher.