The business leaders are not overflowing with optimism

Photo: Valérian Mazataud The Duty
The middle of the restoration was one of the first sectors affected by measures of restriction accompanying the pandemic.

The businesses are seeing a slow return to normal, suggesting a recovery of jobs rather difficult, is afraid of the OECD.

Monday, medium-sized and large businesses, and restaurateurs feared a long recovery postpandémie. The SMES were echoes of this scenario of slow recovery. In the latest blow to probe of the canadian Federation of independent business (CFIB) at the canadian level, 53 % of small business owners estimated that it will take them more than six months to regain their profitability levels normal and 30 % pointed to a horizon of more than a year.

“They are also 5 % to be feared never to be able to achieve the same profits as before the crisis of the COVID-19, adds the CFIB. “In Quebec, almost one-half of the business owners, it is difficult to regain profitability before six months, and 28 % are of the opinion that it will take them more than a year. “

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The vast majority of these companies operates in mode déconfinement progressive. The CFIB shows that nationally, 57 % of SMES are fully open, 34 % have been returned to their normal size, and only 24 % are new sales, similar to this period of the year. “In Quebec, 7 SMES out of 10 are completely open, 40 % have found the same workforce and 30% of sales usual. “

In restaurants, a segment among the first who have been affected by the measures of restriction accompanying the pandemic, the majority of canadian businesses for food services continue to operate at a loss and could put at least a year to become profitable, said Restaurants Canada on Monday.

“More than half of the respondents who are open for pickup and delivery only, or that have re-opened their dining rooms according to the new restrictions say they continue to operate at a loss. “

To the question on the number of months that they believe nécessairesavant that their business becomes profitable, 13 % moved 6 months or less, 31 % rated for 7 months to a year, 36 %, 1 year to 18 months, and 20 % indicated a longer time horizon.

“For the third consecutive month, more than 90 % of respondents reported a decrease of their turnover compared to the same period last year,” says Restaurants Canada, which states that 75 % of restaurateurs who responded to the survey said touching the wage Subsidy emergency in Canada.

In its summer edition 2020 of the Survey on the business outlook, the Bank of Canada pointed out that nearly half of the respondents reported a net decrease in sales over the last 12 months, and more than half anticipate that their total sales next 12 months will be lower than the last 12. Also, half of the exporters has forecast a drop in sales overseas in the next 12 months.

By doing this, more than half of the companies that have recently made layoffs talk of reopening some of the positions in the next 12 months. But many are not planning to increase their workforce, often because they fear low sales, it added the central bank survey.

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Difficult recovery jobs

This difficult recovery jobs mowed down by the pandemic is illustrated in the most recent projections of the Organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD), released on Tuesday.

For Canada, the OECD calculates that the unemployment rate is expected to reach 11 % in the second quarter of 2020, well above the previous peak of 8.7 % in the third quarter of 2009. “Although a rapid decrease is to be expected with the end of the containment measures, the projections remain 7.7 % by the end of 2021 in the scenario of a single wave, of 8.4% in the scenario with two pandemic waves in 2020. “The unemployment rate stood at 5.6% in February.

The OECD recalls that the COVID-19 has severely hit the job market. Hours worked in Canada have decreased by 22.7% during the first three months of the health crisis, against a decline of 2 % over the same period during the global financial crisis. “Among the 10 countries with comparable data, only Italy and Israel have a decrease superior. “

Inequalities

And the impact has been uneven. In Canada, 47 % of those in the bottom quartile of the income distribution have stopped working, compared to only 14 % of those in the top quartile. “Only 15 % of those in the bottom quartile can work safely from their homes, compared with 50 % in the top quartile,” says the Organization.