Ryan Remiorz The canadian Press
The restoration dominates the list of industries that have taken over the tone.
The canadian economy has restarted in may. The GDP has taken a 4.5% after posting two months of declines “unprecedented,” under the emergency measures taken to slow the spread of the COVID-19 has caused closures quasi-generalized. The activity, however, remains 15% below its level prépandémie of February.
Better, Statistics Canada indicates that the information in the interim suggest that the GDP would have continued on its momentum to grow about 5 % in June. “These estimates flash suggest a decline of approximately 12 % in real GDP during the second quarter of 2020. Because of their provisional nature, these estimates will be revised on the 28th of August, at a time when the official GDP will be released for the month of June and the second quarter, ” however, specifies the federal agency.
Returning to may, the growth of 4.5 % is far above the projection of the preliminary 3 % advanced by Statistics Canada and by 3.5% which was consensus among the economists. The federal agency indicates that 17 of the 20 major sectors of activity have taken over the tone. The segment Services, and accommodation and food dominated the list with a growth of 24.2 %, slowed, however, by a decline of 2.3% in accommodation services, ” the restrictions on international travel interprovincial and still in force, pushing the majority of Canadians stay home.” The construction is second with an increase of 17.6 %, followed by the retail trade and its thrust is 16.4 % under the impetus of a rise of 69 % at dealers of motor vehicles and parts. The manufacturing sector follows with an increase in activity of 7.4 %, after a decline of 22.4% in April, while wholesale trade posted a growth of 6 % after three months of decline.
Sectors still in decline are those in the arts, entertainment and recreation (-2,9 %), public administration (1.8 %) and management of companies and enterprises (down by 0.1 %).
The research firm Oxford Economics sees this given monthly to a canadian economy engaged in a process of recovery after a record contraction of 11.7% in April and 7.5% in march. Taking the target preliminary Statistics Canada for June, Oxford provides in its scenario for dominating another substantial gain in July, followed by a deceleration of growth, to reach its level prépandémie somewhere around mid-2021 at best.
Benoit P. Durocher, senior economist at Desjardins group, going in the same direction. “It would be surprising that the real GDP growth keeps the same pace from the fourth quarter. Several challenges will remain, such as maintaining a relatively high unemployment rate […] In addition, the possibility of a resurgence of cases of COVID-19 cannot be ruled out completely, ” he wrote.
In his reading of July, the Bank of Canada estimated that the canadian economy is replierait 7.8 % this year after an expansion of 1.7 per cent last year, before growing by 5.1% in 2021 and 3.7 % the following year. The economy will not likely have recovered from the health crisis before somewhere in 2022, she said.
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