The déconfinement progressive gives its first signs of economic recovery, leaving some sparkle to a peak or a trough, it is based, would have been reached in march-April. The revival, however, is puny and does not project the sketch of a scenario of recovery in V.
Looking for the slightest sign of rebound in the gradual end of the main measures of restrictions, Oxford Economics looks at the purchasing managers index (PMI Index, in English) which, although remaining well anchored under the bar recessions of the 50 points, leaves room for the hope of a modest rebound in manufacturing activity in may.
The confidence index of the Conference Board has also risen slightly between April and may in the United States. Even if the containment remains partial and uneven across the country, ” changes in behavior point to a resumption of activities “, or even to the confirmation of the worst behind itself, emphasizes Oxford.
The worst, of the economic consequences of the pandemic COVID-19, already seems to be of the past for most of the major economies of the world
— Desjardins Group
Oxford recognizes, however, that a single monthly reading of the PMI index is unreliable. Moreover, a survey administered to 320 manufacturers by the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters indicates that approximately two-thirds of the respondents expect a decrease of the production that it would take at least three to six months. Most manufacturers are not planning to hire over the next three to four months. Among these, 43 % of respondents expect a decrease in workforce in the coming months.
The consulting firm of economics research thus widens his spectrum to include the index of the aloofness of the federal Reserve bank of Dallas and the measures of socialization that are the indicators of mobility of Apple and Google. Same conclusion : a peak was reached in April in both the United States and in the major industrialized countries. But any rebound may be negligible in comparison to the sharp contraction in march-April, writes Oxford, this that away for the moment a scenario of V-shaped recovery and has announced a modest rebound in the third quarter.
Back to normal
The index returned to normal, the National Bank points in the same direction. Calculated according to a reference week of 3 January to 6 February, the rolling average of seven days through to data mobility from Google for the shops, grocery stores, work and public transport, displays a progression widespread.
In the major economies, the index rose 80 % in the normal reference for France, 30 % in Sweden, 50 % and 18 % respectively from April to may. Canada has gone from a low of about 52 % to get back to 40 % and the United States, 40% to 28%.
At the canadian level, Quebec and Ontario follow the movement, but far behind and below the canadian average, from all two of approximately 60 % to 45 %
“The worst of the economic consequences of the pandemic COVID-19, already seems to be of the past for most of the major economies of the world,” note the economists at Desjardins group. The gradual end of the main measures of containment is that some economic indicators start to rise, albeit moderately. “
The dashboard on the evolution of the coronavirus in Quebec, in Canada and in the world
Similar to the scenario prevailing, the improvement as measured by the GDP, will be especially practical from the third quarter. On a global scale, ” for the whole of the year 2020, the world real GDP is expected to show a decline of 2.9 %, which will be followed by an increase of 5 % in 2021 “, they write.
In Canada, after a decline estimated at about 9 % in march by Statistics Canada, the GDP is expected to suffer a dramatic reduction in April, to begin its recovery in may. “The Quebec economy has been severely affected by the containment measures “, they add, with consumer confidence falling more than in the rest of Canada, just like the property sales and retail sales.
For the year as a whole, the quebec GDP is expected to decline by 6.9 %, to grow by 5.7% in 2021. These targets are, however, dependent on a series of hazards, including the risk of a second wave of the pandemic, prevent analysts from Desjardins.
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