The hryvnia depreciates: preparing for the appreciation of the dollar

Гривна дешевеет: готовимся к подорожанию доллара

Advice from the experts in terms of saving money

The second half of the year in economic terms can be for many Ukrainians is much less pleasant than the first. From mid-July began a seasonal increase in the dollar – a month earlier than usual. And, according to experts, till the end of the year, the dollar will go mostly upward. Seasonal factors can overlap with panic due to the lack of external loans and large payments on foreign loans that await our country in the next few years.

We will remind: under the law on the state budget, at the end of the year, the dollar should cost to 30.1 UAH, and the average annual U.S. dollar exchange rate is estimated at 29,3 UAH. But since the entire first half of the year, the rate stayed within 26 UAH, the fall is not excluded jump above 31 UAH per dollar.

The appreciation of the dollar traditionally entails a rise in prices for many goods and services. On food, equipment, gasoline and utilities. Now you can find predictions that will accelerate the rise in prices of all products. Since October, the gas tariffs for the population will double. The rise in price of petroleum products will make power until the end of the year again to raise prices on fares, etc.

How to protect your savings? What steps can you take right now in order not to overpay in the future? We collected expert advice in different areas.

Money should work

Financiers suggest in an unstable period to diversify existing savings, that is, to keep the money in different currencies.

“The foreign exchange market over the recent years there is a clear seasonal trend, which can be used for earnings in the year. For example, when the hryvnia strengthened in the first half of the year, you can keep savings in the national currency, in the middle of the year to buy foreign currency and place it on Deposit. However, it is necessary to clearly understand the profitability of this operation. If the yield on hryvnia deposits commensurate with the yield on foreign currency Deposit with the devaluation, the operation of such exchanges would be impracticable. For example, in the hryvnia deposits for 6 months you can earn 7.5 percent on a currency of 2.3%. If, over the next 6 months the devaluation of the hryvnia will not exceed at least 5.7 percent (i.e. your earnings from conversion of foreign currency deposits to 8%, which is 0.5% higher than the hryvnia), to convert hryvnia to the dollar makes no sense”, – tells Andrey Shevchishin, a senior analyst at GK FOREX CLUB.

In addition, the expert advises to use the different financial instruments.

“Savings need to make it work: Bank Deposit, government bonds and investments in the stock markets. The most safe are government bonds and Deposit risky investments in stock markets, but the potential return in the stock market much higher.

The hryvnia should be at least 3 months of expenses (almost like the cover of foreign exchange reserves 3-month net imports). In this case, will not have difficulties with unforeseen circumstances and expenses. The rest of the savings should be diversified: it is the hryvnia, and foreign exchange savings (in various currencies), gold, real estate, investments in the stock market. Currency need to consider the period of 2-3 years, precious metals – more than 5 years real estate – 10 years and more”, – says Andrey Shevchishin.

Recruiters: if you do not raise the salary – looking for a part time job

In periods of devaluation of the hryvnia and rising prices costs are increasing, and many have to think how to “patch holes” in the family budget. These periods force people to seek higher wages, to find a new job at a higher salary or part-time work. We asked experts on staff, as is the current situation with employment and proposals on salaries.

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HR-expert company Tatyana Pashkina said that usually people start to think about change of working conditions after felt inflation for yourself.

“People usually start to think about earning extra money, when prices rose. Then, they indicate to the employer that money is not enough, or just turn to specialists in HR, looking for another job. Willingly because rarely what the employer increases the salaries of employees,” she says.

But perhaps it makes sense to think about it in advance?

The best chance to get a raise today have the pros and the people involved in the production.

“In the field of IT serious competition “for the brain”, and not only among Ukrainian, but also among foreign employers. Many of them with the growth rate of wages may rise, because “tied” to the dollar. But as for the job – some employers may transfer salary rate of hryvnia 26, and the other to 27 or more, respectively, the size of the salaries they will be listed different. In addition, due to competition and rising wages in dollars. Therefore, in this area it makes sense to ask for a raise or look for a better paying job.

The production workers also do not have enough manpower. The large number of vacancies in Ukraine – 15% – production jobs. You can imagine the size of the “hole” if every month we have placed more than 100 thousand vacancies. Last year, for example, after the introduction of a visa-free regime, many producers themselves increased salaries by 50-70%. And if people in connection with rising again it would seem that the salary was not enough, I think they can put in front of employers, the question of raising the. Of course, if a person is really valuable for the company,” says Pashkina.

If the person is able, they say, “work with hands”, but busy “office work”, perhaps it makes sense to change my occupation. Because the highest wage today is precisely in the industrial sector.

“The average salary in Kiev 12 thousand to get, for example, a car mechanic today by 15-25 thousand. And there are 414 vacancies. On one and the same enterprise engineer is ready to pay 12 thousand, and the welder 20. With experience – salary more. But, for example, there are many jobs that do not require special skills, where the salary is still above average in Kiev. Additionally, people can finish the training and some time to work on little money, and then – with experience – will be able to claim an even larger salary. And it is worth doing to the weakening of the hryvnia” – explains the expert of the company

If the work is love, change is desirable, but money is still not enough, today, according to experts, a lot of opportunities to make extra money after hours.

“Unskilled workers in production, Razdolsky fish cleaners – salary 10 to 13 thousand hryvnias. Baker’s pizza, assistant pastry chef, assistant brewer, and there is no experience – from 8 thousand. Assistant painter without experience – 12 thousand. It’s all shift work, where you can get free time in the evenings or on the weekend. There are many hourly jobs call center operator, salary – from 7 thousand to incoming calls and from 12 thousand outbound line”, lists Pashkina.

Per week such part-time jobs you can earn the same as paying the state for the month.

Is it worth to invest money in real estate

For many years we were asked to invest money in real estate, calling this area one of the most promising where the money is “work”, and not lie “dead cargo”.

Today the situation has changed dramatically.

“After the 2008 crisis, real estate is cheaper, and to multiply their investments, buying real estate, it will not succeed. The apartments in the unfinished sections and in construction – from the same developer – primerno sold at the same price. In a finished house you can even find cheaper than is not built. Accordingly, investment in the construction lose their meaning, especially given the possible risks, that the facility will not be completed in time, work on site will be frozen, etc.”, – says Sergey Kostecki, an analyst at consulting company SV Development.

However, the expert acknowledged: Bank deposits less profitable than real estate, so buying an apartment – for example, for rent it still remains one of the most acceptable industries for the savings.

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In any case, according to the expert, buy the best property on the eve and after the increase in the exchange rate.

“Prices in the primary market are “tied” to the national currency, not the dollar. And when the dollar will rise, man will be more profitable to sell the currency, and to pay for the purchase of real estate. So there is a sense in the period of strengthening of the hryvnia to save dollars and at the peak of falling of the national currency to change currency, the hryvnia, and to invest it in real estate,” advises the analyst.

At secondary market prices more “tied” to the dollar. But the growth rate is automatically decreased property prices, says Sergey Kostecki. So such a purchase is better to wait for a time when the hryvnia will weaken.

To buy equipment better now

If you are planning to buy electronics or appliances, it is best to do now while the dollar is not too expensive.

“With the change in the dollar or Euro price for major distributors of electronics increases almost to the day. Dollar – and the next day the company may change their prices. In large shops the price may still a week or two to stay at the same level. And for some products that are in demand is less than or imported less old prices can persist even within a month after the increase of dollar or Euro. But sooner or later prices will go up,” says Alexey Doroshenko, General Director of Ukrainian Association of suppliers of retail chains.

Experts estimate that in order to achieve the budgetary target of 30 per dollar until the end of the year to go up by 80 cents – 1 UAH per month, i.e. 2-4%. He does not exclude that by the end of the year even exceed the forecast and will reach UAH 31 followed by some stabilization. This means that a few percent per month in the second half will go up the imports: electronics, appliances and other household goods.

So, if you are planning such a purchase, better do it now, not at the end of the year.

Energy efficiency – save up to 50% on electricity and up to 40% on heating

You can save on utility bills. And as residents of private houses and apartment buildings. How to prepare for the expected increase in utility prices and even reduce costs – says the Director of DTEK ESKO Yevhen Bushma.

In the first place it makes sense to optimize the performance of electrical equipment:

  • – set of two-band energy meter to pay from 23:00 to 07:00 50% less electricity;
  • – replace your old incandescent bulbs to light-emitting diode (LED), which consume up to 8 times less electricity and Shine brighter;
  • to configure the operation of powerful electrical appliances (boilers, electric heaters, dishwashers, washing machines, crock pots) at a preset time using a programmable outlet timers;
  • – to disconnect from the network unused appliances;
  • – charges laptops, smart phones at night;
  • use the electric appliances with the energy efficiency class not lower than “A”.
  • Thanks to the integrated approach can save up to 50% of the family electricity costs, says Evgeniy Bushma.
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Residents of Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions is the easiest way to start saving costs with energy-efficient sets “Rozumny WATT”, which includes dual-zone counters with a quick installation. Exactly how much you can save in a year, 5 and 10 years, one can calculate using an online calculator.

You can also save the cost of water. To do this, simply install the faucet diffuser jets (downcomer), which allows to reduce water costs 3 times without sacrificing comfort.

The main line, housing and utility costs is heating. It can make up about 90% of the total receipt on a communal flat. In a private house it is possible to reduce the cost of gas for heating, replacing boiler with modern, efficient, with higher efficiency. In an apartment building to achieve substantial savings on heating can only be joined with their neighbors and perform energy efficiency measures at the building level. The insulation of individual apartments of tangible effect will not and can even harm the building (cause mold to grow and cracks due to uneven heating and cooling insulated and non-insulated walls).

At the level of the apartment building, the most effective measure to reduce heating costs can be the modernization of the heating system:

  • – need to install individual heating unit with automated weather regulation of supply and distribution of heat;
  • – to clean the heating system before each heating season to improve the heat transfer;
  • – set balancing valves to equalize the temperature on the risers.

Thus, you can save about 20-40% on heating costs and to achieve a comfortable temperature in all apartments buildings. That is, everywhere is equally warm, not cold and not too hot so you don’t have to open the Windows wide open.

For additional savings in buildings with a horizontal layout of the heating system it is desirable to install individual heat meters for apartments and thermostats on the battery. You can also install heat exchangers to provide fresh air and keep warm.

A comprehensive approach to energy efficiency in old Soviet-built buildings can save up to 50-60%, and sometimes up to 70% of the heating. In addition to repair of engineering communication to this effect will also insulate the building, and all the walls around the perimeter from the base to the ridge of the roof. As well as the attic and the basement to a depth of soil freezing. You also need to fully insulate utilities, below pipe heating systems do not lose heat on the way to the apartment residents.

Of course, all of these measures require investment. Financing these projects will help municipal grants, such as programs like “70/30” or “warm credits” that you can try to get the state Bank (compensation of part of the loan from the state). With the launch of the energy efficiency Fund will be to attract grants for insulation and from him.

Another instrument of funding in a block of flats services. Energy service companies (ESCOs) can Finance and execute “turnkey” energy efficiency measures at the building level, will undertake to serve the new equipment and prepare it to each heating season, while under contract.

Before energy-efficient measures in the building, it is necessary to conduct an energy audit. That is, a comprehensive energy audit of the building. An energy audit will show exactly how much you can save energy and costs in your home, what activities to do when these events will pay off and by what means is better to Finance. Is an energy audit for the apartment building of the order of 10-18 thousand UAH, depending on the scale. If these costs are to be split between people, you get 50-100 UAH per apartment. Not so much on the background of hundreds of thousands of energy losses in the whole building for the year.