The oil sands are expected to rebound after 2020

Les sables bitumineux devraient rebondir après 2020

Photo: Jeff McIntosh Archives The canadian Press
Oil sands production is expected to increase during the second half of 2020, and in 2021, according to a report.

The canadian production of oil sands is expected to know this year its largest drop on record, plunging by an average of almost 175 000 barrels per day due to pandemic-related issues, predicts a new report. The research firm IHS Markit said, however, that the decline of 2020 is not expected to significantly affect the rest of its 10-year forecasts.

Oil sands production will reach 3.8 million barrels per day by 2030, according to the report, which represents a slight decrease compared to the previous forecast of 3.9 million barrels per day, but still an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day compared to the projected production for 2020.

Oil sands production is expected to increase during the second half of 2020 and 2021, while the reductions put in place because of the price reduction will be recovered, and that the ability, which has never been fully used, will increase. According to the report, oil sands production by 2022 would be greater than 300,000 barrels per day to 2019 if the government of Alberta assouplissait its program to reduce oil, introduced at the beginning of 2019 in order to better align the production to the limited delivery capacity of the pipeline network.

The major part of production growth should come from small investments in projects where a certain amount of capital has already been deployed, and less than a third should come from new activities or the expansion of projects. “Despite the shock induced by the COVID in 2020, the long-term expectations for the canadian oil sands are not far from what was anticipated prior to the pandemic,” said the vice-president, IHS Kevin Birn.

“The magnitude of the installed production capacity that exists today, the absence of declines in production that are important in the existing business activities in the medium and long term and the ability to optimize and leverage existing activities to support the growth. “

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