The projections of public Health have reassured Quebecers

The peak of the pandemic arrives, according to projections unveiled Tuesday, but the Quebecers retain the cap. Several people have entrusted the Duty that they kept the hope to get through the crisis and remain motivated to comply with the measures of social distancing. “It shows that one has a choice, determined by our actions : is it a bit more than a thousand Quebecers will die or is it that we are going to lose control and lose multiple thousands of others ?” said Carole-Ann Paul. This resident of Mont-Saint-Hilaire has followed with great attention Tuesday, the press conference of the national Directorate of public health, which estimated that the peak of the pandemic should occur to the 18 April.

The dashboard on the evolution of the coronavirus in Quebec and in Canada

The experts have also unveiled the scenarios on which they rely in order to predict the evolution of the pandemic. In the best case, Quebec would, by 30 April, 29 212 cases of COVID-19, and 1263 deaths linked to the virus. In the worst case, 59 845 people could contract the disease and 8860 in dying. This pessimistic scenario, in the image of the Italian experience, is cold in the back, but it appears to be excluded for the time being, experts say. Having adopted a series of measures as soon as march 13, the province would point rather towards the optimistic scenario.

It’s good to say that our efforts to stay at home and adhere to the social distancing are used to something

— Frédéric Gagnon



Neither reassured nor anxious, Carole-Ann Paul is especially pleased to have been, as a citizen, aware of the scope of what is possible. She hoped that the possibility of losing nearly 9,000-Québec will encourage those who did not take the rules seriously to contribute to the effort.

For his part, Frédéric Gagnon has found the information session very encouraging. “It feels good to say that our efforts to stay at home and adhere to the social distancing are used to something,” says this teacher of Saint-Zotique. He is especially calmed by the prospect of a peak expected around April 18. “It is in 10 days, but it gives an idea of where we are. We see the numbers increase each day, awaiting with impatience that they will eventually go down. Now, we know that it will happen soon “, he says. “The naming of a date, it can cling to the hope that it will soon be past “the worst”, ” says Carole-Ann Paul.

To see the video

Even though Quebec appears to be on the right track, they consider both of them essential to continue to comply with the measures recommended by the public Health, to just ” stay in the good scenario “. The prime minister, François Legault, has warned during his press point 13: this is not the time to slacken efforts. “We are in the process of soon reaching the famous top. But the battle is not won. If one wants to gradually return to a normal life in the month of may, we must remain disciplined in the month of April. “

To reassure the population

In the eyes of the experts consulted by The Duty, the scenarios presented Tuesday by the government has helped to “give a pat on the back” to the citizens to encourage them to continue to comply with the measures of public Health. “The figures for the worst-case scenario may upset people, but having clarified that it is in the right way will have the effect of motivating people. It gives them a sense of control of the situation, they were in the hands of the solutions, ” says Catherine Amiot, a professor of social psychology at UQAM.

For its part, the psychologist Geneviève Beaulieu-Pelletier believes that to give a date to the peak of the pandemic, providing guidance to citizens whose daily life has been completely turned upside-down. The pandemic has plunged into the unknown, where it is difficult to see more than a day-to-day. It will, however, be careful, once this peak passed, that the collective effort is maintained, ” she warns. “On the 18th of April does not mark the spirits as the day where everything will become as before. It will be necessary to continue the containment and prevention. “

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