If quebec’s exports have been able to resume the bull by the horns in may, this is largely due to the performance of categories such as aircraft (+58,9 %) — built mainly by Airbus Canada and Bombardie.
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July 14, 2020 18h29
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The re-opening of the economy has stimulated the québec exports in may
Julien Arsenault
The canadian Press
MONTREAL — The progressive reopening of the québec economy, after the forced break caused by the pandemic COVID-19, has contributed to the export recovery in quebec in may following a dip in April, qualified as”historic” by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ).
But the upswing of 4.8 per cent, in seasonally adjusted data in constant dollars, shown Tuesday remains fragile, according to a senior economist at Mouvement Desjardins Hélène Bégin.
“The road is winding […] in the course of the next few months, she wrote in a analysis note. Even if the recovery seems to be set to on, statistics in teeth of saw are to be expected. The period of recovery of the global economy is expected to continue.”
In may, the value of exports amounted to 5.48 billion $. The decline in exports was of the order of 18 % in April, while the activities of several sectors of the economy deemed non-essential were disturbed due to the health crisis. Receiving the graceful restart of several companies in the manufacturing sector, Quebec has done better in exports in may compared to the monthly change in canadian, which was 0.8 %. This gain was a result of the 19% drop seen in April.
However, the value of exports in may was lower by 23.6% than the same period last year, ” said dr. Bégin. Shipments to the United States — the main trading partner of the province — have plummeted 22.4 %.
If quebec’s exports have been able to resume the bull by the horns in may, this is largely due to the performance of categories such as aircraft (+58,9 %) — built mainly by Airbus Canada and Bombardier — and equipment for businesses and companies specialising in the services (+ 67.7 per cent).
In the longer term, however, the difficulties of the aerospace industry in quebec, which are attributable to the quasi-paralysis of commercial aviation, are likely to leave traces, has warned Ms. Bégin, adding that he would have to wait “several more quarters” before returning to a “pre-COVID-19”.
“This revival [of the category of aircraft] should therefore be ephemeral and will slow the recovery in shipments abroad over the next few months, underlined the economist. The difficulties of the aviation sector and the possible disappearance of some companies will prevent a return to normal.”
If the terms of the Canada-United States-Mexico, in force since 1 July, reduces “a little uncertainty” for exporters, the ability to see the administration Trump to impose new tariffs on aluminum canadian could come to blacken the portrait, ” said dr. Bégin.
In addition to the elements mentioned by the economist, a potential second wave of the number of cases of infection to the COVID-19 could potentially result in new measures to limit the spread of the new coronavirus, which would further dampen the recovery.
Québec has also seen its imports fall to 4 % in may, which was a fourth consecutive monthly decline.
“The effects of the pandemic […] were still being felt in may, particularly due to the decline in the demand of products related to the transport,” said the Institute.
The main setbacks have been observed on the side of the primary forms and semi-finished products of non-ferrous metals and their alloys (-83,4 %), cars and their chassis (-63,2 %), the fuel for the aviation sector (- 99.7 percent), as well as parts for aircraft and other space hardware (-20,8 %).
At the end of the first five months of the year, the value of quebec’s exports, in seasonally adjusted data in constant dollars, amounted to $ 32.8 billion, which represents a decline of 6.9 % compared to the same period last year, stressed the ISQ in its report.
With respect to exports, the decline was 21.7 %.
