The time will be difficult for Canada

Les temps s’annoncent difficiles pour le Canada

Photo: Geoff Robins, Agence France-Presse
The Bank of Canada will clarify, and perhaps refine, what general portrait of canada’s economic outlook, Wednesday, unveiling its spring monetary policy Report.

Canada will be no exception and will see its economy stung seriously on the nose this year, predicts the IMF.

In its latest world economic Outlook the month of January, the international monetary Fund predicted that the canadian economy would gain a bit of strength this year, from a modest growth rate of 1.6 % last year, to 2.2% in 2020. But that was before that crisis broke the COVID-19.

Today, the IMF has had to revise the growth forecast to decrease by 8 percentage points, to a decline of 6.2 % this year, he announced Tuesday. Such a performance would be much worse than the worst years of the economic crises of the past few decades, particularly in 2009 (-2,9 %), in 1991 (2.1 %) and in 1982 (3.2 per cent).

The victim, in fact, the first half of the disastrous year, Canada should then begin a slow rise that would allow him to record a growth of 4.2 % in 2021. The job market would not be affected, rising from an average unemployment rate of 5.7 % last year to 7.5 % this year, and a further 7.2 %, for the next year.

Canada won not only the costs of its policies of containment and the impact of coronavirus on international trade and numerous industries, including the transport, tourism and restoration, acknowledging also the blow of the collapse of the global economy and, with it, the price of oil. Still to close to US $70 per barrel at the beginning of the year, the prices of black gold will remain around $ 37 for the next two years, predicts the IMF, and eventually to $ 45, both good and bad.

The reality could be even darker, has notified the IMF that highlights the context of “extreme uncertainty” and do not lack to emphasize that the battle against the COVID-19 could be longer than expected.

Speaking at the Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada will clarify, and perhaps refine, what general portrait of canada’s economic outlook, Wednesday, unveiling its spring monetary policy Report.

In his report for the month of January, the central bank foresees already a meager economic growth of just 1.6% this year and wondered if the time was not ripe to reduce the interest rate of the country. Since then, the pandemic COVID-19 has occurred and it has lowered its key rate from 1.75% to almost zero (0.25 percent).

It has also developed measures to provide all the liquidity required for the smooth functioning of the financial sector up to imitate, for the first time, his counterparts, including u.s. and european union in setting up its own quantitative easing program designed to inject at least 5 billion dollars per week for 6 months.

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