Photo: Francois Guillot Agence France-Presse
Over the last two months, capital outflows from emerging economies amounted to some $ 100 billion.
“The worst economic consequences since the Great Depression” of 1929. This is the prognosis made by the director-general of the IMF on the impact of the pandemic of sars coronavirus on the global economy.
“Global growth will become sharply negative in 2020 “, said Kristalina Georgieva, without advancing figures. “There are just three months, we expect a growth in income per capita for 160 of our member countries in 2020. Today […] we project that more than 170 countries will experience a contraction in per capita income “, does it clear during his speech ahead of the spring meetings that will take place on a virtual mode, by videoconference, in the next week.
While the coronavirus, the party of China in late 2019, does not stop to spread around the world, countries are facing “uncertainty extraordinary on the depth and duration of this crisis,” she said. Accordingly, the Fund anticipates, at best, a “partial recovery” in 2021, on the condition that the pandemic fades in the second half of this year, and that containment measures can be lifted to allow a reopening of shops, restaurants, a recovery in tourism and consumption.
On the contrary, 2021 may be “worse” than 2020 if the pandemic were to last.
Without surprise, these are the workers the most vulnerable who suffer the most. In the United States, these are 10 million people who pointed to unemployment for the last two weeks of march. The low-income countries or emerging economies in Africa, Latin America and Asia ” are at high risk “, said Ms Georgieva.
Over the last two months, capital outflows from emerging economies amounted to some $ 100 billion, more than triple that for the same period of the financial crisis of 2008.
Although the economic impact is particularly severe, Kristalina Georgieva has expressed that there was no dilemma between saving the life of the people and to safeguard the livelihoods.
And ” because it is an event so dramatic, so vast — virtually a shutdown of the global economy — requires a massive targeted “, she believed, citing the subsidies of salaries, tax allocations, the extension of unemployment insurance, assistance to businesses that are the most fragile. It has also issued a clean bill to the central banks, including the american institution, the Fed, which are “an heroic labor” by injecting thousands of billions of dollars.