Up to 3300 billion shortfall

Jusqu’à 3300 milliards de manque à gagner

Photo: Ratstuben / Getty Images
A boat with a transparent background, waiting for tourists in Ocho Rios, Jamaica.

The restrictions related to the COVID-19 should be translated in the coming months by a shortfall ranging from 1200 to 3300 billion for the tourism and related sectors, according to an estimate by the UN published on Wednesday. According to a new study of the united Nations Conference for trade and development (UNCTAD), the tourism, which accounted for about 300 million jobs in the world in 2019, which is one of the sectors most affected by the crisis.

The paper is based on a recent assessment of the world tourism Organization (UNWTO), according to which the fall of the demand for international travel could lead to a decrease of $ 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists. In the light of these figures, UNCTAD has prepared three scenarios to assess the shortfall that should save the tourism and related sectors.

“This is the shortfall for the sectors and tourism are closely related, such as hotels and restaurants, but also the producers who sell to hotels of agricultural products, the banks which have provided loans to hotels, energy producers, construction, etc “, has detailed the AFP Ralf Peters, head of the information Section on trade in UNCTAD.

The intermediate scenario, developed by UNCTAD, which is the most similar to the evaluation made by the WTO, implies a disruption of international tourism for eight months and evaluates the shortfall of 2200 billion, or 2.8 % of global GDP. It should, however, reach 1200 billion, or 1.5 % of global GDP, if the break lasts only four months and 3,300 billion, or 4.2 % of global GDP, if it lasts a year.

“These numbers remind us clearly one thing that we seem to often to forget : the economic importance of the sector and its role as a lifeline for millions of people in the world “, stressed the director of the international trade division of UNCTAD, Pamela Coke-Hamilton. “For many countries, such as the small island developing States, a collapse of tourism means a collapse of their development prospects. This is not something that we can afford “, she added, as quoted in a press release.

These numbers remind us clearly one thing that we seem to often to forget: the economic importance of the sector and its role as a lifeline for millions of people in the world

— Pamela Coke-Hamilton

 

According to the UNCTAD study, if one refers to the intermediate scenario is considered, the country most affected by the crisis in tourism, with regard to the weight of this sector in the national economy, going to be the Jamaica, followed by Thailand, Croatia, and Portugal. In absolute terms, however, the United States and China, which will record the revenue shortfalls the highest, followed by Thailand, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy.

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